Research Reports

28-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Germany’s IFO business sentiment index remained steady in May at 89.3 with sectors such as manufacturing, construction and trade making steady recovery even as services sector continues to remain a challenge

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27-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Durable goods orders in the US rose by 0.7% in Apr’24, versus (-) 0.8% estimated decline, and following 0.8% increase in Mar’24

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24-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets remained abreast monitoring slew of data releases globally and assessing Fed minutes

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22-May-24

BOB Economics | RBI dividend at record high

RBI declared a record Rs. 2.11 lakh crores surplus transfer to the government in FY25, compared with Rs. 87,416 crores in FY24

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22-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed officials again gave conflicting signals on future direction of rates

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21-May-24

BOB Economics | How different sectors fared in terms of capital formation:

When talking about the investment demand of Indian economy, the first data point which comes to our mind is the gross fixed capital formation, which basically speaks about additions to fixed assets such as machinery and equipment

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21-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed officials remained jittery about the trajectory of inflation

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17-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

While welcoming the dip in inflation in Apr’24, two key Fed officials reiterated the need for a cautious approach to rate cuts

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16-May-24

BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

INR traded in a thin range in May’24 and depreciated marginally by 0.1%

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16-May-24

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

Volatility in US 10Y yield steered movement in bond yields of major economies

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16-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

CPI inflation in US moderated to 0.3% in Apr’24 (est. 0.4%) from 0.4% in Mar’24 (MoM)

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15-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US announced fresh tariffs on a slew of Chinese imports such as semiconductors and EVs

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14-May-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation accelerates

WPI inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in 13 months, as it rose by 1.3% in Apr’24 from 0.5% in Mar’24

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14-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained range-bound ahead of US CPI data

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13-May-24

BOB Economics | Food inflation; still overpowering

CPI print came in slightly higher than our estimate at 4.8% (BoB estimate: 4.7%)

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13-May-24

BOB Economics | A likely surge in FPI Flow (Debt)

The inclusion of Indian government bonds in the Bloomberg and JP Morgan global bond indices has excellent implications for Indian market and the economy as a whole, raising its standing amongst its global peers

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13-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Uncertainty reigned over Fed’s rate cuts as comments from Fed officials and US macro data pushed back the possibility of a rate cut

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10-May-24

BOB Economics | IIP growth eases in Mar’24

IIP growth moderated to 4.9% in Mar’24 from 5.6% in Feb’24, led by improvement in manufacturing and electricity output

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10-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 22k to 231k (est.:214k) for the week ending 4 May 2024

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09-May-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Monsoon holds the key

Uncertainty around timing and quantum of Fed’s rate cut increased in Apr’24 as tightness in labour market dampened hopes of Fed rate cut before Sep’24

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09-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s exports rebounded in Apr’24 as they rose by 1.5% (in line with expectation) after falling by (-) 7.5% in Mar’24, led by exports of automobiles, home appliances, and LCD panels

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08-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Reserve Bank of Australia, in line with market expectations, left its policy rates unchanged for the 4th consecutive time in May’24

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07-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Softer than expected labour market data in the US has refuelled hopes of maybe 2 rate cuts (cumulative 50bps) by Fed this year

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06-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Non-farm payrolls in the US rose by 175k in Apr’24, much lower than estimated 240k and also lower than 315k in Mar’24

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03-May-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – April 2024

Markit global manufacturing PMI slipped from 20-month high of 50.6 in Mar’24 to 50.3 in Apr’24

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03-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US labour market data showed persistent tightening

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02-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed kept policy rate unchanged in line with expectations

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30-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Manufacturing activity in China showed revival with Caixin PMI index remaining above the 50-mark for the 2nd consecutive month

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29-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro data prints in the US pointed towards robust spending and stable income growth

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26-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Growth in US economy slowed down to 1.6% at annualized pace in Q1CY24 from 3.4% in Q4CY23

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25-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In the US, new orders for durable goods climbed up by 2.6% to US$ 283.4bn in Mar’24 from 0.7% in Feb’24 on a monthly basis, reflecting strength in the economy

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24-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

India’s business activity (flash composite PMI) surged to a 14-year high to 62.2 in Apr’24 from 61.8 in Mar’24 supported by strength in both services and manufacturing sector

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23-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

As the concerns around Middle East conflict eased, global indices rebounded with demand for safe haven assets waning

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22-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Recent reports of possible de-escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Iran and Israel gained prominence, after Iran signalled the possibility of no retaliation against Israel

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19-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Reports of an escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran have roiled global markets

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18-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.2% in 2024 from 3.1% estimated earlier, led by better-than-expected growth outcomes in advanced economies

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16-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Risk aversion was visible in global markets with increased demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and dollar amidst tensions in Middle East

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15-Apr-24

BOB Economics | India’s Foreign Trade in FY24

India’s external position remained strong with trade deficit narrowing sharply in FY24

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15-Apr-24

BOB Economics | IMD-Forecast for South West Monsoon

IMD its first long range forecast for the year has stated the South-West Monsoon (Jun-Sep) this year is expected to be above normal

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15-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

In Apr’24 so far, INR has depreciated marginally

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15-Apr-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation picks up pace

Headline WPI inflation accelerated to 0.5% in Mar’24 from 0.2% in Feb’24, but came in lower than our estimate of 1.5%

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15-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Geo-political tensions in the Middle East escalated amidst increased hostilities between Iran and Israel, which is likely to weigh on investors’ sentiments

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15-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Domestic resilience continues

Global monetary policy easing cycle is likely to get delayed as the growth and inflation dynamics in US has once again bolstered the case for higher for longer rates

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12-Apr-24

BOB Economics | India’s General Election-2024

World’s largest democracy will hold General Elections this month with over 96.8cr eligible voters expected to participate in this spectacle and elect 543 members to the Lok Sabha

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12-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

ECB in its latest policy meeting decided to leave the key rates unchanged, but for the 1st time incorporated the statement that it will loosen the policy once it gets clear indication of inflation nearing the 2% mark

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10-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In some positive news for Germany, industrial production in Feb’24 rose by 2.1% (MoM) versus est.: 0.3% increase and 1.3% increase in Jan’24

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08-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US labour market is showing signs of resilience with non-farm payrolls for Mar’24 at 303k, much higher than est.: 214k and 270k in Feb’24

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05-Apr-24

BOB Economics | RBI remains on hold

In its first monetary policy for FY25, MPC has kept the policy rates on hold, with repo rate at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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05-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets monitored comments of several Fed officials who again gave conflicting signals

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04-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – March 2024

Markit global manufacturing PMI data reveals that headline PMI index rose to 50.6 in Mar’24, from 50.3 in Feb’24

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04-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed Chair in his remarks pointed out that recent macro data reading has not ‘materially changed’ the interest rate picture

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03-Apr-24

BOB Economics | RBI to remain static

Monetary Policy committee in the upcoming policy meet is likely to retain the repo rate and continue with the ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance

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03-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In the data heavy week, markets traded cautiously

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02-Apr-24

BOB Economics | CC Dynamics-Consumption and Credit picture

An analysis of consumption demand and bank credit offtake has shown that: The consumption picture is puzzling. But the funding side of demand has evolved strongly

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02-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US ISM manufacturing index rose to 50.3 in Mar’24, defying expectation of 48.3

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01-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Year End - Equity market performance

In FY24, we observed that Indian equity markets (Sensex for the purpose of our analysis) was one of the best performing markets after Japan’s Nikkei and US’ S&P 500

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01-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

INR depreciated by 0.6% in Mar’24, reversing the gains it made in the last 3-months

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01-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

The trajectory of India’s 10Y yield in FY24 has been interesting

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01-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Recently comments by fed officials have made a case for divided house as far as the interest rate cuts is expected in Jun’24

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28-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In India, Centre’s borrowing calendar was released for H1FY25

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27-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In US, durable goods orders made a recovery after it rose by 1.4% in Feb’24 (-6.9% in Jan’24)

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26-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors closely monitored the rate decision by global central banks

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22-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A busy week for global central banks came to an end with a slew of decisions across the globe

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21-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectations, US Fed left its key policy rates unchanged in Mar’24 at 5.25-5.5%

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20-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Global central banks actions in retrospect

Ever since the Covid-19 pandemic, the role of monetary policy has gained prominence in both political as well as social debates across the world

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20-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Stronger than expected housing starts data in the US has raised uncertainty around Fed’s timing and quantum of rate cuts

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19-Mar-24

BOB Economics | How has the equity market performed?

Global equity indices have broadly witnessed an uptick for the 12-month ending Mar’24 (till 18 Mar)

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19-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectations, BoJ hiked rates for the 1st time in 17 years, as it increased short-term rates (primary policy tool) to 0-0.1% from (-) 0.1%

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18-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Industrial production in the US rebounded (MoM) in Feb’24 as it rose by 0.1% (est.: 0%), following downwardly revised (-) 0.5% decline noted in Jan’24

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17-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

INR continued to trade in a narrow trading range in Mar’24 and has noted a modest gain of 2paise over Feb’24

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15-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

PPI inflation in US rose by 0.6% in Feb’24 on a MoM basis, beating estimates of a 0.3% increase, led by higher gasoline prices

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14-Mar-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation at its lowest since Oct’23

WPI inflation slowed further to 0.2% in Feb’24 from 0.3% in Jan’24. Fuel and manufactured product inflation led the moderation. Food inflation accelerated to 4.1% from 3.8% in Jan’24

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14-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Trends in ownership of government debt

In this note we have briefly analysed the trends seen in ownership of debt of general government (centre and states) securities

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14-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets assessed the US inflation data to determine the trajectory of Fed rate cuts

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12-Mar-24

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Food inflation a discomfort

CPI print was in line with our estimate at 5.1%

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12-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained muted awaiting the crucial US inflation report, which is likely to determine the trajectory of Fed rates going forward

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11-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s growth continues to impress

India’s high frequency growth indicators remained broadly resilient. Electricity demand, non-oil-non-gold imports, PMI data and credit offtake showed resilience

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11-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US non-farm payroll rose more than expected by 275,000 in Feb’24 (est. 200,000) from 167,000 in Jan’24

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07-Mar-24

BOB Economics | How prices look in Feb’24

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has inched up by 4.2% in Feb’24, on YoY basis

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07-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets monitored Fed Chair’s speech which hinted at delayed start to the rate cut cycle, probably later this year

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06-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US macro data again raised doubts about the timing of rate cut. ISM services index softened to 52.6 in Feb’24 from 53.4 in Jan’24

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05-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Analysis of the liquidity deficit

Liquidity deficit in the system has been increasing since Sep’23, to reach a record high of Rs. 3.5 lakh crores on 24 Jan 2024

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05-Mar-24

BOB Economics | How has State capex fared in FYTD24?

Investment has proved to be a crucial pillar of growth this year, with major contribution coming in from government spending on capital expenditure

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05-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets are eyeing China’s official economic target for CY24

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04-Mar-24

BOB Economics | GDP expectations for FY25

According to the recently released estimates, the NSO has pegged the economy to clock a growth of 7.6% in FY24

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04-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Delayed start to the rate cut cycle by major central banks led to rally in global stocks buoyed by risk on sentiments

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04-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

Sell off in global bond market persisted in Feb’24 as well since markets have already priced in a late start to the rate cut cycle of major central banks

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04-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review

INR has remained on a strong footing in Feb’24, appreciating by 0.2%

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04-Mar-24

BOB Economics | India’s crude import-story so far

Russia meets a large portion of India’s ever growing demand for crude oil

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01-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE index rose by 0.3% (MoM) in Jan’24 up from 0.2% in Dec’23

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29-Feb-24

BOB Economics | GDP growth to ascend to 7.6% in FY24

Ministry has kept India’s growth projection at 7.6% for FY24 (7% in FY23)

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29-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US GDP growth for Q4CY23 has been revised downward to 3.2% from 3.3% estimated earlier

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28-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Durable goods orders in the US fell by (-) 6.1% in Jan’24 versus est.: (-) 4.5% decline, and down from (-) 0.3% in Dec’23

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27-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

New home sales in the US rose by 1.5% (MoM) in Jan’24, slowing from 7.2% increase in Dec’23

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26-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Germany confirmed that GDP contracted by (-) 0.3% in Q4CY23, following stagnation in Q3 (0% growth versus -0.1% decline estimated earlier)

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23-Feb-24

BOB Economics | GDP to grow by 6.4% in Q3FY24

Global growth continues to witness the risk of slowdown amidst growing challenges such as restrictive financial and tight monetary conditions

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23-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro data painted a mixed picture of the US economy

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22-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Corporate Performance: Q3FY24

India Inc.’s financial performance in Q3-FY24 mirrored the trend seen in the last few quarters

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22-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Minutes of the Fed’s Jan’24 meeting revealed that MPC members remained concerned about cutting rates too soon, even though it was acknowledged that policy rate has possibly peaked

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21-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to assess the trajectory of policy rates. Minutes of the Fed policy meeting are due today

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20-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Producer prices in US rose at the fastest pace in 5-months at 0.3% in Jan’24 (est. 0.1%) compared with a decline of 0.1% in Dec’23

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19-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review

INR has continued to trade in a thin trading range in the fortnight ending 16 Feb 2024, appreciating marginally by 0.03%

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16-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Foreign Trade (April-January)

India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$ 205.5 in FYTD24 (Apr-Jan) from US$ 229.4bn in the same period last year

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16-Feb-24

BOB Economics | How Lifestyle Inflation rate has moved

In the age of growing consumerism, rising aspirations of middle class and higher share of working age group population, lifestyle products (goods and services) have become progressively important

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16-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Softer than expected retail sales print in the US has fuelled bets of dovish outlook by Fed

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15-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The recently released macro data has pushed back the rate cut expectations by Fed from as early as Mar’24 to Jun’24

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14-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Status of infrastructure projects

An overview of data by Infrastructure and Project Monitoring Division (IPMD) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reveals some interesting facts

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14-Feb-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation slows down

WPI inflation slowed to 0.3% in Jan’24 from 0.7% in Dec’23

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14-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors monitored the most awaited US CPI print which surprised and came in higher than expected at 0.3% in Jan’24 on MoM basis (estimated: 0.2%) from 0.2% in Dec’23

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13-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A slew of economic data from the US is expected to provide guidance on Fed’s outlook on interest rates

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12-Feb-24

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Still some pain points on inflation

CPI print came in at 5.1%, considerably higher than our estimate of 4.7% and market consensus (Bloomberg est.) of 5%

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12-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Study on Personal Loans

The study aims at understanding the composition of the subsectors of personal loans and the changing trends

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12-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors attention is likely to be cued on to the US inflation data to offer more guidance on possible path for interest rates

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09-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Fiscal consolidation to hold key

India’s growth resilience continued with high frequency macro indicators such as non-oil-non-gold and electronic imports, power demand, GST collections and credit demand, holding up well

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09-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In the US, jobless claims data was just shy of expectations, falling to 218k for the week ending 3 Feb 2024 and compared to previous week’s level of 227k

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08-Feb-24

BOB Economics | RBI remains on hold

MPC members for the 6th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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08-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

On macro front, China’s inflation data remained worrisome

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07-Feb-24

BOB Economics | How prices look in Jan’24

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 1% in Jan’24, on a sequential basis

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07-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In the recent trading session, it is reflected that investors have already priced in a late start to the rate cut cycle of Fed

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06-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

On macro front, US ISM services PMI data rose to its 4 month high of 53.4 in Jan’24 from 50.4 in Dec’23

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05-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – January 2024

IMF has raised its global growth forecasts for CY24 to 3.1% from 2.9% predicted in Oct’23

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05-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global market indices reacted differently to different outcomes

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03-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

Sell off in global bond market was seen in Jan’24 and Feb’24 (till 2nd Feb)

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03-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review

INR has strengthened by 0.3% in 2024, consolidating a gain of 0.2% it made in 2023

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02-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Bank of England kept its policy rates on hold, by a split vote

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01-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Union Budget Analysis 2024-25

In order to arrive at budget ratios, government makes some critical assumptions

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01-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectations, US Fed decided to keep the policy rates unchanged in Jan’24

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31-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

IMF has revised its global growth projections upward for CY24 to 3.1% (+0.2% from Oct’23 projection) and expects 3.2% growth in CY25

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30-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

As US Fed begins its 2-day meeting today, it is largely expected to keep policy rates on hold

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29-Jan-24

BOB Economics | What production and price data of consumer goods say?

A lot of talks are ongoing about the consumption picture of Indian economy

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29-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US GDP in Q4CY23 expanded by 3.3%, beating expectation of 2% growth, but slowing from 4.9% in Q3

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25-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Flash PMIs of major economies signalled an improvement in economic activity

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24-Jan-24

BOB Economics | FY25 Budget Preview: Focus to remain on consolidation

With 2024-25 budget being an interim one, government will focus on maintaining continuity of policies, while committing itself to the path of fiscal consolidation

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24-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets were volatile as investors reassessed the future path of global monetary policy

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23-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged, in line with market expectations

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19-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Expectations of early rate cuts took a back seat as data sets (higher retail sales and sharp drop in Unemployment benefits) continue to signal strength in the US economy

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18-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Withering the dual storm of restrictive monetary policy and inflation, US retail sales data climbed higher than expected and signalled strength in the economy

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17-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A slew of data was released in China including the GDP print for Q4CY23 which climbed up by 5.2%, tad lower than the estimate (5.3%)

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16-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectation, Germany’s economy contracted in 2023 to 0.3% on the back of high inflation and weak foreign demand

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15-Jan-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation creeping up

WPI inflation remains out of deflation as it rose by 0.7% in Dec’23 from 0.3% in Nov’23

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15-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The expectations of rate cut by Fed in Mar’24 has regained prominence (likelihood of rate cut at 79.5% from 73.2% in the previous week) given softer than expected PPI print (-0.1% in Dec’23 against expectation of +0.1%)

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12-Jan-24

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Some degree of comfort on inflation

CPI print came in lower than expected at 5.69% (BoB estimate at 5.55%)

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12-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Global Commodity price movements in 2023

Global commodity prices have witnessed correction in CY23

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12-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Trend in FPI flows

After a dismal start, FPI flow into India picked up pace, cumulatively totaling US$ 28.7bn in 2023

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12-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets tracked a host of macro and geopolitical developments

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11-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Amongst major equity indices, rally in Nikkei continued and it headed towards a fresh 3 decade high

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10-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Household credit, a stimulus to growth?

Recently, in India’s context, credit to households has been under the radar

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10-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained cautious ahead of release of US CPI inflation data, which is expected to shed some light on the trajectory of Fed fund rate

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09-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Fiscal consolidation to hold key

India’s high frequency growth indicators painted a mixed picture

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09-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets reacted to a multitude of factors

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08-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets are again re-thinking their positions

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05-Jan-24

BOB Economics | FY24 growth estimated to surge to 7.3%

NSO has estimated that Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 7.3% in FY24 growth from 7.2% in FY23

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05-Jan-24

BOB Economics | How prices look in Dec’23

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 0.4% in Dec’23, on a sequential basis

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05-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Better than expected labour market data from the US has pushed global yields back up

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04-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

FOMC minutes of the Dec’23 meeting revealed, that while the members have acknowledged fading inflationary risks, they are now also concerned about of the impact of restrictive monetary policy on growth and employment

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03-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global manufacturing activity remains under duress, as contraction was reported in 23 out of 29 surveyed countries by Markit PMI

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02-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – December 2023

US economy continues to show divergent trends in growth, with consumer demand holding ground, labour market cooling and real estate sector signalling marginal improvement in conditions

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02-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained closed on New Year’s day, but Asian markets have seen a mixed opening today as China’s official manufacturing PMI data shows deepening contraction in Dec’23

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01-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The Fed policy meet in Dec’23 has made a crucial shift with Fed Chair signalling a dovish pivot in CY24

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01-Jan-24

BOB Economics | SCB’s fortnightly performance

Deposits held with SCBs

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01-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Sectoral growth in Credit – November 2023

The sectoral growth in credit provides useful insights on which sectors are borrowing funds and hence driving the investment and production cycles

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01-Jan-24

BOB Economics | How transmission has fared?

A closer look at the table reveals how transmission of interest rates across different spectrum have fared

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01-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Highlights of RBI’s Financial Stability Report

RBI has attested to the strength of the Indian economy in its latest half-yearly Financial Stability Report

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29-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro data from US suggested a further cooldown in economic activity, indicating that the Fed is on track to cut rates

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28-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global stocks continued to rally amidst strengthening expectations of Fed rate cuts

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27-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

With many global markets still closed, trading volumes remained thin

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26-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets traded in narrow ranges in the holiday thinned trading week

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22-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Economic data from the US fuelled expectations of monetary easing by Fed with investors pricing in a 71.3% likelihood of 25bps rate cut as per FEDWATCH tool

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21-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Ahead of the release of key US GDP print and PCE report, economic data continued to show resilience with consumer confidence jumping to a 5-month high of 110.7 in Dec’23 driven by optimism of current and future business conditions

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20-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The dovish pivot by Fed raised the expectations (67.5% chance) of a possible rate cut by as early as Mar’24

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19-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Amidst the ongoing uncertainty in the global markets, BoJ continued with the ultra-loose monetary policy as the members unanimously agreed to keep the rates at -0.1% mark and also continued with the yield curve policy

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18-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets closely tracked rate decisions by major central banks

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15-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to get support from Fed’s dovish policy and expectation of a monetary policy normalisation in the coming year

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14-Dec-23

BOB Economics | WPI out of deflation

WPI inflation came out of deflationary zone for the first time in this financial year as it rose by 0.3% in Nov’23, up from (-) 0.5% decline in Oct’23

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14-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed unanimously decided to keep policy rate unchanged, as anticipated, while striking a dovish tone

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13-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The latest inflation print before Fed policy meeting came in higher than street estimates

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12-Dec-23

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Sticky food driving inflation higher

CPI print came in at 5.55%, slightly lower compared to our estimate of 5.7%

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12-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets remained broadly cautious refraining from holding any strong positions before a plethora of central bank policy meetings and also awaiting CPI data releases of major economies

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11-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US non-farm payroll additions were better than expected with 199k in Nov’23 (est.: 185k)

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08-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Growth remains resilient

India’s growth has remained on firm footing with Q2 GDP holding strong

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08-Dec-23

BOB Economics | RBI maintains status quo

MPC members for the 5th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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08-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Trends in general government subsidies

In this note we have briefly analysed the trends seen in general government (centre and states) subsidies

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08-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Initial jobless claims data in the US is indicating steady slowdown in the labour market, with claims increasing to 220k for the week ending 2 Dec 2023, up by 1k from the week before

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07-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Rabi Sowing: Update

A delayed start to the rabi sowing this year due to erratic rainfall has raised concerns around agriculture growth in H2FY24

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07-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Labour market in the US is continuing to show signs of loosening, as ADP data shows that private payrolls were up by only 103k (est.: 120k) in Nov’23

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06-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Adding to weakening global growth conditions, Australia’s Q3CY23 GDP print shows that growth slowed more than expected

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05-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – November 2023

Global economy is showing signs of soft landing rather than hard landing, with US economic growth proving to be more resilient than expected and UK economy giving slight miss to start of the recession in Q3

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05-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US factory orders in Oct’23 declined (-3.6% MoM) more than expected (-3%), following downwardly revised print of 2.3% growth in Sep’23

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04-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Manufacturing PMIs from across regions indicates that activity continued to remain under pressure in Nov’23

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04-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook

Prospects that the Fed may soon start cutting its policy rates next year, have weighed on the dollar which has been trailing at a ~4-month low

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04-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

Global yields got comfort from expectation of easing financial conditions in the coming year

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01-Dec-23

BOB Economics | India on track to be the fastest growing economy

India’s GDP expanded at a robust pace of 7.6% in Q2FY24, beating market expectations

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01-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A slew of data from US and Eurozone reinforced views that global rates have peaked, with bets now being placed on the timing of rate cuts

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30-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Fiscal deficit at 45% of BE

Centre’s fiscal deficit has reached Rs 8 lakh crore as of Oct’23 (FYTD basis) which is only 45% of the budget estimate, compared with 45.6% of the target achieved last year

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30-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Q2 GDP growth in 4th gear

India’s GDP growth surprised positively, rising by 7.6% in Q2FY24, following a 7.8% growth in Q1FY24

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30-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s manufacturing PMI slipped deeper into the contraction zone (49.4 in Nov’23 v. 49.5 in Oct’23)

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29-Nov-23

BOB Economics | IPO boom: An analysis

India’s economy continues to report strong growth with our estimate now being 6.5-6.6% that is much higher than its global counterparts (Global growth: 3%), and making it’s a one of the top contenders in the global IPO market space

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29-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Conference Board consumer confidence index rose to 102 in Nov’23 (est. 101.0) from 99.1 in Oct’23

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28-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Providing fresh signs that the US economy may be slowing down, new home sales declined by 5.6% to 679,000 (est. 723,000)

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24-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Corporate performance: Q2FY24

India Inc.’s performance based on a sample of a 3,265 companies spread out across 35 sectors in Q2-FY24 has been ambivalent

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24-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Eurozone composite PMI inched up to 47.1 in Nov’23 from a near 3-year low of 46.5 in Oct’23, but remained in the contraction zone

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23-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Has capacity utilization for India Inc. improved in H1?

Depressed sales in H1-FY24 has impacted the turnover to fixed asset ratio of India Inc

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23-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A spate of economic data across US suggested that the economy is moderating but it remains strong enough to avoid recession

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22-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed minutes highlighted the need to move ‘carefully’ and the need for policy to remain ‘restrictive’ in order to achieve the committee’s 2% inflation objective

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21-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Moving in line with market expectations, PBoC has kept its benchmark rates unchanged with 1-year LPR pegged at 3.45%

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20-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors across the globe brace for the likelihood of the US interest rates peaking

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17-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A slew of economic data in the US pointed towards the fact that US Fed fund rate has already peaked

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16-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US economy continued to show some softening

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15-Nov-23

BOB Economics | How FPI flows have moved?

FPI flows in the past few months have been disappointing

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15-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Softening CPI print in the US (flat sequential increase against 0.4% increase in Sep’23) provided some degree of comfort to markets

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13-Nov-23

BOB Economics | CPI: Inflation eased marginally; food remains sticky

CPI print came in slightly higher than our estimate at 4.9% (BoB estimate: 4.7%)

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13-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Hawkish comments from Fed Chair on the trajectory of inflation has again spurred some bit of selling in the bond market

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10-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Growth holding ground

On the domestic front, growth indicators are showing resilience in activity

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10-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Better than expected initial jobless claims data of the US and hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Powell, pushed treasury yields higher and equity markets lower

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09-Nov-23

BOB Economics | How has state capex performed in H1FY24?

Continuing its push on capex spending, Centre’s capital expenditure in H1FY24 has shown a steady increase

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09-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

As a concern for global economy, deflationary pressures in China continue to persist

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08-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

As a result of weakening global demand, China’s trade data showed that its exports fell by 6.4% (est.: -2.9%) in Oct’23, following 6.2% decline in Sep’23

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07-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Final estimates for composite (46.5 in Oct’23 versus 47.2 in Sep’23) and services PMI (47.8 versus 48.7) show that Eurozone has started Q4 on an even weaker note

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06-Nov-23

BOB Economics | State of States as they go for Elections

India will witness the State Assembly Elections in this month ahead of Lok Sabha Elections scheduled in the summer of 2024

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06-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro data from the US showed signs of slowdown with loosening labour market and easing services activity

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04-Nov-23

BOB Economics | How prices look in Oct’23

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has edged down to 2.4% in Oct’23

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03-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Trends in sector-wise credit deployment

Our brief analysis of RBI’s sectoral deployment of credit data shows that in YoY terms, credit growth (excluding the impact of HDFC merger) as of Sep’23 has moderated a bit this year (15.3%) compared with last year (16.4%)

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03-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – October 2023

Divergent economic trends amongst major economies have come at the forefront

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03-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global macro data posed concerns of a slower pace of growth

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02-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

US 10Y yield exhibited quite a bit of volatility

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02-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review

INR slipped to a fresh record-low of 83.29 to the dollar in the last session, after the FOMC kept rates steady

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02-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets cheered US Fed decision on holding rates

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01-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets remained cautious monitoring slew of macro releases and ahead of major central banks’ policy decisions

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31-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

BoJ in its latest policy has made a slight tweak in its YCC program

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30-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US core PCE index, Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, moderated to 3.7% in Sep’23, from 3.8% in Aug’23

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27-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

ECB kept interest rate on hold, breaking the streak of rate hikes that began in Jul’22

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26-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US yield soared sharply inching closer once gain to the 16-year peak of 5%

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25-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Projection of Kharif output 2023-24

India witnessed below normal rainfall in 2023 after a span of over 4-years (of normal and above normal rains) with a deficiency of 6% below LPA

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25-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Concerns around global economic slowdown specially in Europe resurfaced after Eurozone Composite PMI (flash) worsened to 46.5 in Oct’23 (lowest since-Nov’20) from 47.2 in Sep’23

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23-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed survey on financial stability highlighted the following concerns amongst the respondents: likelihood of higher rates for a longer period on account of inflation and probability of losses in commercial real estate market

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21-Oct-23

BOB Economics | How have interest costs responded to repo rate cycles?

When we talk about monetary policy cycles, the first thing which pops up in our mind is how these interest rate decisions will impact borrowing costs

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19-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Conflict in the Middle-East continued to garner investors’ attention, leading to higher demand of safe assets such as dollar and gold

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18-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review

INR has remained under pressure amidst a deterioration in the global economic environment

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18-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors monitored macro data even as tensions in Middle-East continued to simmer

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17-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to monitor the evolving dynamics in the Middle East as the war continued for the 11th day

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16-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US consumer sentiment index as measured by the University of Michigan moderated significantly to 63 in Oct’23 (est. 67.2) versus 68.1 in Sep’23

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13-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US CPI came in higher than expected (0.4%in Sep’23 on MoM basis) led by acceleration in shelter cost (0.6% from 0.3%) and services (0.6% from 0.4%)

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12-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors wagered that US interest rates have peaked, this was supported by recent dovish commentary of Fed officials

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11-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s growth to get festive boost

India’s growth story is expected to maintain its resilience led by festival demand

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11-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Concerns around Middle East conflict eased marginally as investor continued to monitor the developments

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10-Oct-23

BOB Economics | State Borrowings-An Update

State governments recently concluded their borrowing program for Q2FY24 and announced planned borrowing for Q3FY24

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10-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Widening of the conflict in Middle East weighed in on the investor sentiments as global markets remained attuned to the turmoil

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09-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Asset turnover ratio, a proxy for capacity utilization

Often when we talk about the non-financial sector, an important indicator to look at is the capacity utilization rate

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09-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors assessed the US jobs report for Sep’23 as non-farm payrolls increased by 336,000 in the month, much more than was anticipated by the analysts

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09-Oct-23

BOB Economics | How prices look in Sep’23 and Oct’23

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 1.8% in Sep’23 compared to 0.7% increase seen in Aug’23, on a sequential basis

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06-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI maintains status quo

RBI’s policy came out on expected lines with both stance and rates being kept on hold

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06-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Correction in global yields continued. In the US, jobless claims data came in less than expected at 207K (est.: 210K)

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05-Oct-23

BOB Economics | What’s the latest on non-government investment?

Investment picture in FYTD24 i.e. H1FYTD24 has remained fuzzy

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05-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – September 2023

Macro data points from the US, China are showing that economy is maintaining momentum /recovering, while in Eurozone and UK weakness in activity persists

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05-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Some correction was visible in global equity and bond markets led by softening macros worldwide

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04-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Hitman and King’s cover drives to boost India’s GDP

India is set to host the ICC-Men’s World Cup, for the first time since 2011

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04-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

Global yields witnessed quite a bit off sell off both in Sep’23 and in Oct’23 (till 3 Oct 2023)

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04-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Sell off in the bond market continued with US 10Y yield rising by 12bps to its highest level since 2007

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03-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US PCE deflator closely tracked by Fed to gauge underlying price pressure rose at a sharper pace by 0.4% in Aug’23 compared to 0.2% in Jul’23, on MoM basis

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28-Sep-23

BOB Economics | RBI: Hawkish while holding horses

In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, which is scheduled on 6 Oct 2023, we expect MPC to maintain a hawkish pause and keep the rates unchanged

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28-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US durable goods orders bounced back in Aug’23, posting 0.2% increase versus est.: -0.5% decline and reviving from fall of -5.6% in Jul’23

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27-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Impact of India’s inclusion in JP Morgan bond index

After a long wait, India was finally included in JP Morgan’s global bond market index

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27-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Chances of soft landing of the US economy have increased with new home sales and consumer confidence taking a hit

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26-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update

The cumulative rainfall activity for the country remains in deficit at 5% below LPA, as of 25 Sep 2023

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26-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Uncertainty around US government shutdown, slated to begin from 1 Oct 2023, is causing new worries

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25-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Flash PMIs for major economies show that services activity in the US slowed unexpectedly, while in UK it continues to weaken further in Sep’23

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22-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Sell-off in global bonds and equities continued amidst the increased possibility of higher for longer US rates

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21-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectations, the Fed kept its policy rate steady at 5.25%-5.5%

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20-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US housing starts fell by 11.3% to 1.28mn units in Aug’23 (est. 1.45mn units), from 1.45mn units in Jul’23, as rising mortgage rates dented demand

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18-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US industrial production moderated to 0.4% in Aug’23 (est. 0.1%) from 0.7% in Jul’23

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18-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review

INR depreciated to a fresh record-low of 83.18/$ on 15 Sep 2023 led by a confluence of adverse shocks of rising dollar, higher oil prices and FPI outflows

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18-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update

For the period till date (upto 15 Sep’23), monsoon activity is in deficit zone at 9% below LPA

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15-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s economy signalled early signs of recovery on the back of better than expected data led by improvement in retail sales (4.6% from 2.5% in Jul’23) and industrial output (4.5% from 3.7% in Jul’23)

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14-Sep-23

BOB Economics | WPI at highest since Mar’23

WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in Aug’23, although its pace slowed, as it fell to (-) 0.5% compared with (-) 1.4% in Jul’23

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14-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors tracked US CPI which reflected prices have heated up at the fastest pace in over 14-months (3.7% in Aug’23)

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13-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors braced for the release of the CPI print and offer clarity on how long will Fed continue to tighten the policy rates

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12-Sep-23

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Inflation eased – Veggie spike cooled a bit

CPI print remained broadly aligned with our estimate of 6.9% in Aug’23 and came in at 6.8% far lower compared to 7.4% seen in Jul’23

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12-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors have turned their focus towards the upcoming release of US CPI print which might offer guidance over the course of Fed’s restrictive policy

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11-Sep-23

BOB Economics Research | The CD market in FY24

To augment funds, banks have relied on alternative sources, one of which is through issuance of Certificate of Deposits or CDs

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11-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update

India’s South-West monsoon cumulatively stands at 10% below LPA till 11 Sep 2023.

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11-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In China, as an encouraging sign towards economic recovery, deflationary pressure eased after CPI returned back in to the positive territory (+0.1% vs -0.3% in Jul’23)

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08-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Jobless claims data in the US fell to its 7-month low signalling tighter labour market conditions

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07-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US ISM services PMI accelerated to 54.5 in Aug’23 (est. 52.5) from 52.7 in Jul’23, once again attesting to the strength of the US economy

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06-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The news of Saudi Arabia continuing with its production cut of 1mbpd till Dec and Russia scaling back exports up to 300,000bbl/day has sent quite a bit of shock in the asset market

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05-Sep-23

BOB Economics | BoB-ECI: BoB Essential Commodities Index, Aug 2023

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has moderated to 0.7% in Aug’23 and further has fallen by 1.7% in Sep’23, on a sequential basis

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05-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s Caixin services PMI expanded at its slowest pace in 8 months dropping to 51.8 in Aug’23 against expectation of 53.5 and previous month’s level of 54.1

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04-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update

Cumulative rainfall for the country has slipped in to the deficient zone at 11% below LPA

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04-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US labour market data gave mixed signals to the market

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01-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Economic Round-up: August 2023

Macro data points from the US, Europe and China and are showing that weakness in manufacturing and services activity still persists

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01-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

US 10Y yield has pared most of its increase in Aug’23 as major growth indicators remained patchy

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01-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review

After depreciating to a record-low during the month, INR made a smart recovery to end the month only marginally lower

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01-Sep-23

BOB Economics | BoB Forecasts of kharif production

Past data indicates that over 90% of kharif sowing is completed by August end

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01-Sep-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro data from US shows core PCE price index came in line with expectations as it rose by 4.2% (YoY) in Jul’23, tad up from 4.1% in Jun’23, and registered 0.2% MoM gain

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31-Aug-23

BOB Economics | GDP growth in Q1: India-fastest growing major economy

India’s GDP rose by 7.8% in Q1FY24, following 6.1% growth in Q4FY23

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31-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro data from major economies once again fuelled fears of a slowdown in growth. In US, private payrolls (177k versus est. 195k) and second revised estimates of Q2CY23 GDP (2.1% versus est. 2.4%) missed market expectations

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30-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Job openings data (JOLTS) for the US showed that openings dropped to 2.5 year low in Jul’23 to 8.83mn (est.: 9.45mn), down from 9.17mn in Jun’23

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29-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update

India has been witnessing deficient rainfall in the month of August and it stands at 32% below LPA compared with a 13% (above LPA) surplus rainfall received back in July

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29-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Market participants await more cues from US macro data to gauge Fed’s future rate actions

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28-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Globally, both consumer and business confidence indices took a beating in Aug’23

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25-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained on edge as investors keenly await guidance on future rate trajectory at Jackson Hole

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24-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Economic activity in advanced economies signalled a significant moderation, led by a drop in momentum in the services sector

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23-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that the US economy could reaccelerate rather than slowdown

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22-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Expectations of US rates remaining higher for longer have increased, leading to a further sell-off in global bonds

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21-Aug-23

BOB Economics | India’s crude import-story so far

Russia meets a large portion of India’s ever growing demand for crude oil

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21-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update

For the cumulative period till 18th August, India’s South West Monsoon is down by 6% below LPA (3% below LPA last week) compared with 9% surplus last year for the same period

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21-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

After a turbulent week, a degree of calm returned to the global markets as investors await commentary from major central banks at the Jackson Hole Symposium

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18-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Bond Yields: Why Bond yields are inching up

US 10Y yield has risen considerably post the last Fed policy meeting (26 Jul)

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18-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR at record low - What’s next?

INR closed at a record low of 83.15/$ yesterday, just short of an intra-day low of 83.24/$ in Oct’22

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18-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Amidst the news of Chinese property developer filing for bankruptcy claims and dismal economic data, there has been growing concerns around uneven recovery in the economy

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17-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Uncertainty around slower pace of recovery in China’s and fear of Fed keeping rate hike on the table longer than anticipated kept the global indices on the edge

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14-Aug-23

BOB Economics | CPI and WPI: Sharp pick-up in inflation – a cautionary call

CPI print surprised way above expectation at 7.44%, and was the highest since Apr-22

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14-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update

India’s South West Monsoon slowed down marginally to 3% below LPA (5% surplus last week) compared with 8% surplus last year for the same period

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14-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US PPI data rose more than expected both on a sequential (0.3%, est: 0.2%) and YoY basis (0.8%, est.: 0.7%) in Jul’23

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11-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US CPI data remained comforting

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10-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI maintains status quo

In a unanimous decision, MPC members have decided to keep the policy rates on hold, with this, repo rate remains unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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10-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors remained cautious ahead of release of US CPI data, where a sequential pickup of 0.2% is expected both for headline print and core CPI

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09-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Capex Trends: How has state capex performed in Q1FY24?

Capital expenditure by the government continues to remain the key driver of economic growth in the last few years

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09-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Adding to further woes, China’s inflation data softened considerably in Jul’23

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08-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Expectations: RBI likely to stand pat

The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% in the upcoming policy meet

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08-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global macro indicators showed some degree of softening

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07-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Economic Round-up: July 2023

More macro data now points towards slowdown in global manufacturing activity in Jul’23

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07-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US jobs report showed some degree of softening as it rose by 187k (slowest pace since Dec’20) and less than expectation of 200K

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05-Aug-23

BOB Economics | How prices look in Jul’23

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has picked up sharply by 4.9% (MoM) and 6.5% (YoY) in Jul’23

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05-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update

All India cumulative seasonal rainfall is 5% above LPA as of 4 Aug2023

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04-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with expectation, BoE with 6-3 votes favoured to raise rates by 25bps to 5.25% (15-year high) and noted the borrowing cost will remain high for as long as it takes to return inflation to the 2% target level

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03-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets reacted sharply to the news of Fitch downgrading US sovereign debt

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02-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fitch downgraded the US rating to AA+ from AAA over concerns of fiscal deterioration expected in next 3-years and repeated debt-ceiling negotiations with last minute resolutions that has eroded confidence in fiscal management

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01-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

Growth remained comparatively on better footing for US, Eurozone and India; thus risk on sentiments led firming up of yields of these economies

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01-Aug-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed’s quarterly survey noted that US banks have reported weaker loan demand and tighter credit standards in Q2CY23, reflecting pass-through of rising interest rates

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31-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update

The intensity of rainfall has pushed South-West monsoon higher at 6% (above LPA) till 30 Jul 2023

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31-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Inflation in US as measured by Fed’s preferred gauge, PCE price index softened to 3% in Jun’23 (3.8% in May’23), its slowest pace in ~2 years

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28-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Trends in state fiscal deficits

In order to analyse the health of state finances in FY23 and FY24, we start by looking at the trends in fiscal balance of states

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28-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR likely to remain range-bound

Global growth and inflation continue to show diverging trends

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28-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Bank of Japan in a surprise move, tweaked its yield control curve (YCC) to allow for “greater flexibility”, while keeping policy rate unchanged

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27-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Corporate debt structure in India

During the peak of Covid-19 pandemic, a phenomenon which gained prominence amongst Indian corporates was deleveraging-or a decline in overall debt

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27-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with expectations, Fed raised its policy rates by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50%-a 22 year high

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26-Jul-23

BOB Economics | India’s crude imports – Growing phase

India is amongst top 5 importers of crude oil across the globe

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26-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

IMF has upgraded the global growth forecast to 3% in CY23 from 2.8% estimated earlier amidst a slowdown in inflation, resolution of US debt ceiling and reduced stress in the banking sector

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25-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Ahead of key central bank meetings, flash PMIs of major economies showed signs of increased stress

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24-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Positive changes seen

India’s South-West monsoon has gathered momentum with higher rainfall at 5% (above LPA) till 23 Jul 2023

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24-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Market focus remains on major central bank meetings as the Fed, Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) meet later in the week

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21-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Labour market data for US shows that it continues to strengthen, as initial jobless claims for the week ending 15 Jul’23 fell by 9k to 228k (est.: 241k)

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20-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

UK’s retail inflation print for Jun’23 came in lower than expected (8.2%) at 7.9%, down from 8.7% in May’23

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19-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US industrial production (MoM) in Jun’23 fell again by (-) 0.5% (est.: 0%), at an unchanged rate from May’23

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18-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

As China’s economy is showing mixed signs of growth (industrial production up; moderation in retail sales and FAI), investors are expecting a global growth slowdown in Q3

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17-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Even as hopes of a prolonged pause by Fed have increased, some members still remain hawkish

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17-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update

India’s South-West monsoon continues to engulf the entire country resulting in higher rainfall at 1% (above LPA) till 14 Jul 2023

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14-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Trade: Q1FY24 performance

India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$ 57.6bn in Q1FY24 from US$ 62.6bn in the same period last year

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14-Jul-23

BOB Economics | WPI at lowest since Oct’15

WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in Jun’23 as it fell to (-) 4.1% from (-) 3.5% in May’23

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14-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In the US, PPI data also showed some degree of softening in prices as both on MoM and YoY basis (0.1% each) it moderated more than expected

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13-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Inflation data prints in the US and India were the primary market movers

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12-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Red-hot inflation, IIP growth improves

CPI print rose more than expected by 4.8%

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12-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global macro data remained mixed

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11-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed officials namely Michael Barr, Mester and Daly spoke about a steeper Fed fund rate path in an effort to bring down inflation sustainably to the targeted 2% level

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10-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update

Advancement of South-West monsoon across the entire country has resulted in above normal rainfall at 2% (above LPA) till 9 Jul 2023

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10-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Labour market data in the US showed some softening as non-farm payrolls rose by 209K (est.: 230k) in Jun’23

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07-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Hawk-eyes on inflation

Inflation concerns in India reignited with some upswing in vegetable prices especially tomato (0.57% wt in CPI) and onion (0.64% wt in CPI)

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07-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Following the release of Fed minutes, recent macro data (Private payrolls, ISM services PMI at 53.9 from 50.3) brought back the likelihood of more rate hikes

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06-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed in the minutes reiterated more rate hikes are in the offing as it continues to remain data dependent

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05-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets will await Fed’s minutes scheduled to release later today for more clarity on future path of rate hike

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04-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Economic Round-up: June 2023

Continued slowdown in global manufacturing activity in Jun’23 (at 6-month low of 48.8) and drop business optimism index to 7-month low, has reignited fears of global growth slowdown

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04-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fears of slowdown in US economy were back yet again after ISM manufacturing PMI (46 from 46.9 in May’23) reading came in at the same level as was last seen during Covid-19 wave

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03-Jul-23

BOB Economics | FPI Flow: India visa vis Globe

Indian economy remains a favored place for investment as has been reflected by strong FPI flows in the past few months

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03-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Government Market Borrowing Update

State governments in Q1FY24 borrowed Rs 1.67 lakh crore from the market, lower than the planned amount of Rs 2 lakh crore, but higher than Q1FY23’s Rs 1.1 lakh crore

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03-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR expected to trade with appreciating bias

Buoyant FPI inflows and a weaker dollar pushed INR 0.8% higher in Jun’23

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03-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

The reiteration of hawkish tone by central banks in US, Eurozone and UK have led to sell off in the bond market

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03-Jul-23

BOB Economics | The reason behind spike in tomato prices

Tomato prices are again on a spiral. On sequential basis, the average retail price of tomato went up by 38.5% in Jun’23

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03-Jul-23

BOB Economics | How prices look in Jun’23

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) showed a slight uptick by 1.2% in Jun’23 on sequential basis, however, much of it is attributed to seasonality

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03-Jul-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global central banks are expected to remain data dependent as they continue to battle elevated inflation

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30-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global central banks are likely to continue raising rates as the fight against inflation seem far from over

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28-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US macro data indicated that the economy remains on strong footing

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27-Jun-23

BOB Economics | How India Inc fared in terms of capital formation?

It is often blurry when we speak of the investment picture of Indian economy

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27-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Household savings move towards markets

Household savings are a critical part of the growth process as they provide the funding required for the same

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27-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Developments in India’s BoP in FY23

India’s CAD widened to -2% of GDP in FY23 from -1.2% of GDP in FY22

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27-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global central bank policies continue to remain the underlying theme driving market movements in the last few sessions

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26-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fresh fears of a global economic downturn emerged after flash composite PMIs of Japan (4-month low), US (3-month low), UK (3-month low) and Eurozone (5-month low) showed a slowdown

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23-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

BoE surprised the markets with a higher (+50bps) than anticipated (+25bps) rate hike in its Jun’23 policy meeting, stating “persistence in inflation process, tight labour market and resilience in demand” as the rationale

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22-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The much awaited Fed Chair Powell’s testimony was in line with markets’ expectations

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21-Jun-23

BOB Economics | How have NBFCs fared vis-à-vis Banks

Using the data largely from RBI’s report on Trend and Progress in Banking 2021-22, this study attempts to look at the performance of Non-Bank Financial Corporations (NBFCs) in the last few years and compares the same with scheduled commercial banks (SCBs)

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21-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US housing starts jumped sharply in May’23 to 1.63mn units (+21.7% MoM) from 1.34mn units in Apr’23

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20-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: How has Monsoon and Kharif fared in the past?

The onset of South West monsoon was delayed this year by more than a week against expectation (1st Jun)

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20-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Following 10bps cut in 1Y Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) by PBOC last week, now 1Y and 5Y Loan Prime Rate (LPR) have also been reduced by 10bps (est.: 15bps cut)

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19-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global Central Bank continued to remain divergent with Bank of Japan sticking to its ultra-easy monetary policy

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16-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Policy decisions remained divergent with ECB raising policy rate by 25bps and hinting at being sufficiently restrictive on the back of elevated inflation

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15-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed in its latest meeting underwent a pause in its 500bps hiking cycle

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14-Jun-23

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 7.5 year low

WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in May’23 as it fell to (-) 3.5% from (-) 0.9% in Apr’23, thus dropping to its 7.5 year low

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14-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In the US, CPI print dropped to its lowest since Mar’21 recording a print of 4% in May’23 on YoY basis (est.:4.1%) and compared to 4.9% in Apr’23

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13-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In an effort to provide stimulus to the economy, PBOC has reduced the 7 day reverse repo rate by 10bps to 1.9%

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12-Jun-23

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth improves

CPI print cooled off to its lowest since Apr’21 to 4.3% in May’23

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12-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained cautious ahead of a slew of macro data releases (inflation, industrial production and retail sales prints in major economies) and central bank meetings in the US, EU and Japan

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09-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Hawkish pause; monsoon to hold key

India’s GDP data confirmed that economic growth remains on firm ground

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09-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Following the softening of labour market in the US and expectation of moderation in inflation as well in May’23, investors are now hoping for an earlier than anticipated end in Fed’s rate hike cycle

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08-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI remains on hold

MPC members today again unanimously decided to keep the policy rates unchanged, with this, repo rate remains unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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08-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Central Bank of Canada surprised the markets by hiking its key policy rate by 25bps to 4.75%, thus taking it to 22-year high

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07-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets were surprised yesterday as RBA raised its key policy by 25bps (est.: pause) to 11-year high of 4.1%, and further indicated that more tightening might be needed to bring inflation down to targeted levels

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06-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Latest macro data from the US shows that factory order rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Apr’23 (est.: 0.8%), slightly down from 0.6% in Mar’23

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05-Jun-23

Monetary Policy Expectations: RBI to maintain status quo

In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, which is scheduled on 8 Jun 2023, we expect MPC to remain on hold and keep the rates unchanged

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05-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Additions to non-farm payrolls in the US rose more than expected (195k) in May’23 to 339k from 294k in Apr’23

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05-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Bank credit growth in Apr'23

After increasing by 15% in Mar’23, bank credit growth picked up further to 15.9% in Apr’23

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05-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Corporate Results: How have companies fared in Q4FY23?

The corporate sector recorded a fairly steady performance in Q4 of FY23 though growth in sales and net profits slowed down relative to last year

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02-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Commodity Trends: How prices look in May’23

CPI print for May’23 is due to be released

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02-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Indian Economy FY24: A Prognosis

Global growth expected to slow down in 2023, led by Advanced Economies

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02-Jun-23

BOB Economics | GDP: Looking closer at GDP Estimates

Indian economy rose by 7.2% in FY23 after expanding by 9.1% FY22

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02-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – May 2023

Downward revision to Germany’s Q1CY23 GDP (-0.3% versus -0.5% in Q4CY22) has reignited fears of global growth slowdown on account of elevated prices, and aggressive tightening by central banks

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02-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors factored in a higher possibility of a pause on rate hike front by Fed (76% for pause) in the upcoming Fed meet given the early signs of labour market cooling off

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01-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review

UK and US 10Y yields’ noticed quite a sharp upturn in May’23

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01-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Pressure on INR to be short-lived

INR depreciated in May’23 amidst renewed dollar strength

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01-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Commercial Paper: How funding through CPs have evolved?

Commercial Paper (CP) issuances have carved an important space historically and remained a preferred choice for better rated corporates for raising capital in a cost effective way from the market

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01-Jun-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to gauge the likelihood of rate hike or a pause in the upcoming Fed meet amidst comments from Fed officials and US job openings report

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31-May-23

BOB Economics | GDP: GDP growth in FY23 - Positive surprise

Indian economy rose by 7.2% in FY23 after expanding by 9.1% FY22.

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31-May-23

BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Fiscal deficit at 6.4% in FY23

Centre’s fiscal position in FY23 came in line with government’s revised projections for FY23

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31-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro indicators globally reflected the dual dilemma of growth and inflation

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30-May-23

BOB Economics | RBI Annual Report: Key macroeconomic highlights

Global economic outlook both for CY23 and CY24 looks benign on account of lagged impact of tighter financial conditions, subdued private investment, and geo economic shifts impacting capital flows and persistent elevated inflation

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30-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets turned buoyant after the US debt ceiling deal was tentatively struck with final voting expected this week (5th June timeline)

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29-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Surrounded by optimism around US debt ceiling pushed global indices higher

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26-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Robust data from US has lent support to still nascent probability of a rate hike in Jun’23

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25-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

FOMC minutes reflected that members were split on further course of policy

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24-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US macro data pointed to continued resilience in the economy

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23-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Comments from Fed officials have raised the possibility of higher US rates

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22-May-23

BOB Economics | Bank Liquidity: Impact of withdrawal of 2000 rupee notes

RBI in its notification dated 19 May 2023 has announced gradual withdrawal of 2000 rupee notes from the system; albeit stating that it continues to be a legal tender

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22-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed Chairman highlighted that future policy decisions will be on a “meeting to meeting” basis

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19-May-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR under pressure

After remaining stable for most part of the last few months, INR has come under pressure in the last few sessions

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19-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US labour market data shows that initial jobless claims for the week ending 13 May, fell by 22k from the previous week to 242k (est.: 252k)

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18-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US housing data indicates that real estate sector is showing some signs of improvement

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17-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Latest data from the US shows that consumer demand still remains steady as retail sales rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Apr’23, up from (-) 0.7% in Mar’23

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16-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

As global markets await decision on raising debt ceiling by the US government to avoid default, risks of Fed hiking rates again in Jun’23 have also increased

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15-May-23

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 34-month low

WPI inflation continues went into contraction in Apr’23 as it came in at (-) 0.9%, down from 1.3% in Mar’23

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15-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets await decision on raising US’ debt ceiling as the deadline approaches closer

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12-May-23

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth slips

CPI print cooled off to 18-month low in Apr’23 to 4.7% against 5.7% in Mar’23

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12-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US macro data points to a slowdown

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11-May-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Is less than 7% the next stop for 10Y yield...?

Fed’s latest decision signalling a prolonged pause has helped ease pressure on both domestic yields and currency

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11-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US CPI data on a sequential basis remained sticky rising by 0.4%, in Apr’23 from 0.1% in Mar’23 (est.: 0.4%)

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10-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed officials reflected divergent tone about course of Fed rate

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09-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Amongst major developments has been better than expected exports growth in China by 8.5% in Apr’23 (est.: 8%), albeit slower compared to 14.8% growth in Mar’23, on YoY basis

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08-May-23

BOB Economics | BoB-ECI: BoB Essential Commodities Index

Inflation indices in India are presented on a monthly basis at both the wholesale and retail levels

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08-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets monitored US payroll data, which remained buoyant with non- farm payroll rising by 253K in Apr’23 from 165K in Mar’23 and against est.: level of 185K

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04-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed raised rates by 25bps to 5-5.25%, highest level in over 16-years as it battles stubborn inflation

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03-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global indices eye rate decisions by global central Banks

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03-May-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – April 2023

GDP data for Q1CY23 shows that while major economies have avoided a recession (most feared in case of Europe), slowdown in activity still continues

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02-May-23

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review

Global bond yields traded mixed in Apr’23 influenced by varied macros

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02-May-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A string of data releases this week is likely to keep investors on their toes

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29-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR is likely to remain range-bound

Global economy was once again beginning to stare at the possibility of economic slowdown as fears re-emerged over the possibility of economic recession in US owing to another banking crisis

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28-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In Q1CY23, US GDP growth slowed to 1.1% (est. 2%) from 2.6% in Q4CY22

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27-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US data showed a mixed picture of the economy

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26-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fears over the global banking crisis were reignited after First Republic Bank reported a sharp decline in its deposits

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25-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to track earnings report and macro data to gauge future course of monetary policy

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24-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Stock Indices: Are Macroeconomic variables and Stock Indices related?

The performance of Indian stock market (Nifty) in FY23 when compared with last year has not been up to mark

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24-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Economic activity in major economies picked up pace, supported by a recovery in services sector

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21-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Rate Differential: Update on India and US

India and US 10Y yield differential is seen inching up since March’23

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21-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Latest US data shows that existing home sales have again begun to decline in Mar’23 (4.4mn units versus est.: 4.5mn and 4.6mn in Feb’23)

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20-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed’s beige book indicates that economic activity remains broadly unchanged

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19-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Capex climate: Update on investment scenario and its funding

Investment picture in FY23 was fuzzy

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19-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US housing starts are seen stabilising on the hopes of Fed pausing its rate hike cycle this year (expected from Jun’23)

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18-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to strengthen

DXY fell by 0.9% in Apr’23 so far as expectations that the Fed is nearing an end to its rate hike cycle gained momentum

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18-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Latest data from China points that reopening of the economy has helped GDP growth as it rose by 4.5% (YoY) in Q1CY23 (est.: 4%) from 2.9% in Q4

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17-Apr-23

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI continues to decelerate

WPI inflation continues to decelerate at a faster pace than CPI and was down to 1.3% in Mar’23 compared with 3.9% in Feb’23

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17-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro data in the US is giving mixed signals, pointing out that the economy may not be slowing as much as anticipated

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13-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Inflation in the US cooled more than expected to 5% in Mar’23 (est. 5.1%) versus 6% in Feb’23 (YoY), supported by a sharp decline in gasoline prices

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12-Apr-23

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth stable

CPI print in Mar’23 got comfort from a favourable statistical base

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12-Apr-23

BOB Economics | IMF World Economic Outlook: IMF flags risks to recovery

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its recent report has flagged risks to the global growth recovery

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12-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Rate hike off the table; Inflation holds the key

All eyes were around the surprise pause delivered by RBI

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12-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

IMF lowered its global growth projections for CY23 and CY24 to 2.8% (2.9% earlier) and 3% (3.1%) respectively, on the back of tight monetary policy

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11-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Amidst muted domestic demand, CPI inflation in China decelerated further to 0.7% in Mar’23 (est. 1%) from 1% in Feb’23

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10-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US labour market conditions continued to remain strong as nonfarm payrolls rose at a robust rate of 236,000 in Mar’23, after increasing at a solid pace of 326,000 in Feb’23

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06-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI surprises with a pause

MPC members today unanimously decided to keep the policy rates unchanged, after hiking continuously since May’22

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06-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – March 2023

Global growth is showing signs of slowdown as mixed economic data is being reported from the US and China

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06-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Disappointing data reading from US (ISM non-manufacturing and ADP employment) continues to signal slowdown in US economy

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05-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Sluggish US data (shrinking manufacturing activity and lower jobs opening) pulled down the dollar index and raised hope of Fed nearing the end of rate tightening cycle

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03-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed’s gauge of inflation data (PCE: down to 5% in Feb’23 against 5.3% in Jan’23) surprised positively

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03-Apr-23

BOB Economics | Cost of Bor